![]() This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. This research was sponsored by the United States Air Force and conducted by the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE. External forces could generate conflict, such as accidents and inadvertent escalation, a crisis resulting from climate change, or conflict over scarce resources.allies' redlines, the United States could be faced with the difficult choice of entering into a war it does not want or abandoning an ally. As American adversaries become more assertive and push up against U.S.The rise of strongmen across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East could decrease checks and balances and create incentives for future conflict.and allied economic power declines in relative terms. ability to use sanctions in lieu of violence will decline as U.S. Three major regions-the Indo-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East-are all likely areas for the next war the Middle East appears most likely, although the Indo-Pacific might pose the greatest danger.įuture conflicts will probably stem from four basic archetypes, namely counterterrorism, gray-zone conflicts, asymmetric fights, and high-end fights Four overarching trends could shape when and why the United States might go to war.conflicts can be parsed by likelihood or by risk allies' will and capacity to exert force, particularly overseas, will likely decline. allies in Asia as countries hedge against Chinese power. China's growing influence likely will alter the list of U.S.China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups will remain top U.S.adversaries is likely to remain fixed, but the list of U.S. ![]() ![]() Air Force should invest in more precision, information, and automation build additional capacity maintain a robust forward posture and reinforce agility at all levels of warfare. To meet future demands, the joint force and the U.S. Above all, barring any radical attempt to alter the trajectory, the United States in 2030 could progressively lose the initiative to dictate strategic outcomes and to shape when and why the wars of the future occur. ability to resource such a diverse force will likely decline. The joint force will likely face at least four types of conflict, each requiring a somewhat different suite of capabilities, but the U.S. allies are liable to change, and the location of where the United States is most likely to fight wars may not match the locations where conflicts could be most dangerous to U.S. adversaries-China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups-will likely remain constant, but U.S. The authors conclude that the United States will confront a series of deepening strategic dilemmas in 2030. Who will the United States fight against and who will fight with it? Where will these future conflicts be fought? What will future conflicts look like? How will they be fought? And why will the United States go to war? This report is the overview in a series that draws on a wide variety of data sets, secondary sources, and an extensive set of interviews in eight countries around the globe to answer these questions.
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